Profitable funds left the agricultural market

Yesterday, the commodity market accelerated the outflow of funds, in which agricultural product market funds exceeded 1 billion yuan with the early stage of long-term profit-taking, commodity futures market positions fell in the last two trading days.

The newspaper overnight overnight commodity market

The rise in the market drove the domestic commodity futures market to open higher. However, due to the cautious influence of investors' mentality, agricultural products dived and dragged down the increase in industrial products. The market capital outflow was obvious. Analysts believe that the topic of rising speculation in the current round has basically come to an end. If the follow-up lacks substantial bullish support, the market will probably turn into a high level of shock.

Yesterday, due to the U.S. industrial output growth exceeding expectations in July, and Ukraine’s possible ban on grain exports, the external disk commodity market generally rose. Driven by this, the domestic commodity futures market also opened higher. However, as investors are concerned that prices will rise too fast, they will incur greater pressures on policy control and import supply. The agricultural futures that led the gains in the previous period will be the first to show signs of fatigue. A quarter of an hour later, the price began to fall gradually, accelerating the diving after midday, and the market turned green from red. In the end, rapeseed oil futures fell 1.4%, hit a new low since 8 trading days, soyoil futures fell 1%, and corn futures fell 0.4%. The industrial goods market was slightly stronger. Shanghai Metals once returned to the current round's rebound high, but there was also a narrower increase in the late session.

It is worth noting that yesterday's large-scale lightening of the market means that long-term profitable long funds have begun to leave. According to statistics, the commodity market lightened up to 157,000 hands yesterday, and the previous day lightened up 71,200 contracts. In the agricultural product futures, there were 6 major varieties of lightened products yesterday. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil were reduced by more than 66,000 hands in two types of oil, and soybeans and soybean meal were lightened by 81,000 lots, corn was lightened by 16,000 lots, and cotton was lightened by 6646 lots. According to the settlement price and 10% margin estimate, a total of about 1 billion funds flowed out of these varieties yesterday, and with the exception of soybeans and soybean meal, which have just started to lighten up, the remaining varieties have experienced capital outflows for several consecutive days. From the perspective of the exchange's published list of LongHuan, the bulls' main force DongFeng futures reduced their soybean holdings by more than 13,000 contracts a day, while soaring more than 3,800 lots of soybean oil. Spot trader Louis Dreyfus also cut more than 1400 soy oils. In addition, in the industrial sector, affected by the longevity of agricultural products, the market atmosphere of some industrial products also tends to be cautious. The rebar and natural rubber markets have lightened 62,000 hands and 12,000 contracts respectively. Even the increase in heavy volume on Monday has increased. Perfect PTA futures, lighten up 16,000 hands yesterday.

The Ministry of Commerce of China stated last week that in August of this year, China's soybean imports may reach 4.8 million tons, soybean oil imports 308,000 tons, palm oil imports 236,000 tons, and rapeseed oil imports 109,000 tons, all compared to July. Explosive growth. In addition, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s daily sales announcement, dating back to July 20, the past few weeks, China has ordered a total of 2.906 million tons of US soybeans, which will be delivered in the 2010/2011 marketing year.

Xu Liang, an analyst of East Asia Futures, said that domestic oil stocks are at historically high levels. With large quantities of imported soybeans, inventory pressure will gradually manifest itself. From the disk point of view, soybean oil and palm oil have not yet changed the upward trend, but rapeseed oil has shown signs of Powei, this round of rising will also be turned into a short-term adjustment.

Zhongda Futures Luo Xiaoling said that many varieties of highs fell yesterday, because after a round of rising, the disk needed some technical corrections. However, from a fundamental perspective, the bullish factors still dominate. The recent US soybean trend is strong, and the fund continues to hype the weather factors in the main US producing areas. The demand for the feed industry on the eve of the domestic double festival still supports the market outlook for beans. However, the variety of oils and fats is subject to the pressure of port inventory, and the current upside down phenomenon remains unrepaired.