The sadness of the pharmaceutical stocks 2018: In the first half of the year, the "black swan" flies in the second half of the year.

The pharmaceutical stocks were written in 2018: "How sweet is the front, and there is more abuse in the back."

[Financial Union] (researcher Zhu Jiechi) "How sweet is the front, there is more abuse in the back", probably the most authentic portrayal of pharmaceutical stocks in 2018.

As of the beginning of 2018, until December 28, the pharmaceutical sector fell 27.08%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 25.57%. The performance of the pharmaceutical sector in the first half of the year and the second half of the year was very different. In the first half of the year, the market broke out of the independent market in the first half of the year, but it was lower in the second half of the year. Judging from the data of Shenwan's first-level industry, the pharmaceutical index climbed from a minimum of 7110 points to 9545 points at the end of May after a slight downward adjustment at the beginning of the year. It crossed the middle of the "watershed" and turned head down. On December 28, it closed at 5840. .92 points, not only to give up 20% of the excess returns, even to end the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index. In the past year, the twists and turns of the market have caused investors to be caught off guard.

In the first half of the year

In the first half of 2018, the entire A-share market was shrouded in turmoil, but the pharmaceutical stocks were outperforming, and they staged a plot against the market.

Whether it is the gradual implementation of the new regulations on capital management, or the Sino-US trade frictions, or the more confusing international geopolitical pattern, investors' pessimistic expectations are constantly magnified. Compared with most industries, medicine is a weak cycle and demand-demanding industry, which is very suitable as a “safe haven” in a difficult situation.

In addition, the growth rate of listed companies this year generally slowed down, but due to the impact of the special flu epidemic in the first quarter, the average profit of pharmaceutical companies increased by more than 30%, and the growth rate far exceeded expectations. In addition, in the past two years, although the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector is still acceptable, it is obviously behind the consumer sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances, etc., and pharmaceutical stocks have naturally become the first choice for investors.

In addition to the growth of industry characteristics and performance, the industry policy in the first half of the year is also an important guarantee for the continued strength of the pharmaceutical sector. In April, the HKEx announced a consultancy plan for emerging and innovative industry companies to go public in Hong Kong, allowing undistributed and non-revenue biotech stock issuers, emerging and innovative industry share issuers with different voting rights structures to land on the main board market, bio Technology companies listed in Hong Kong receive special privileges. The same thing happened in A shares. WuXi PharmaTech, as a “unicorn” company in the field of biomedicine in China, had a smooth meeting in only 50 days after the pre-disclosure of the prospectus on February 6. The brokerage research report also pointed out that the A-share future is expected to speed up the listing of the technology-based "unicorn".

Driven by a number of factors, the capital market has seen a number of arguments that the pharmaceutical industry will enter the “bull market”. The Industrial Securities Medical Team believes that the 2018 conference will be the first real "big year" for the pharmaceutical sector since 2014. The excess revenue of pharmaceuticals will continue in the second half of the year. It is expected that the growth of the pharmaceutical sector will reach 2018. More than 25%. However, as soon as the voice fell, there was a "black swan" flying over the pharmaceutical industry, causing the entire sector to fall rapidly.

In the second half of the year, "Black Swan" flew

On July 15, the State Drug Administration issued a notice saying that Changchun Changsheng Changchun Changsheng people used rabies vaccine to record fraud. For a time, the sentiment was indignant. The stock price of listed companies entered the daily limit mode from the next day. After a total of 36 down-limits, they recorded the longest consecutive daily limit in the history of A-shares. On July 27th, the CSRC introduced new conditions for mandatory delisting – endangering public health and safety, and pointing to longevity. On December 11, *ST Changsheng announced that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange intends to implement a major illegal violation of the company's stock.

The vaccination event continues to ferment, which not only makes the longevity creatures return to zero overnight, but also the entire pharmaceutical industry. A week after the incident, the overall market value of the pharmaceutical sector evaporated 160 billion yuan, and the leading companies in the vaccine industry experienced a full-line down limit.

The longevity "black swan" is still hovering over the sky. On July 29, the private medical examination leader's health in the United States was exposed to the "fake medical door". A retired employee broke the news that the medical examination center of his work employed undocumented doctors and even used others to practise. The certificate helps undocumented personnel to take up their posts. The next day, the US health year opened lower. Although the listed company denied the violations for the first time, it was quickly ruined by the Guangzhou Tianhe District Health and Family Planning Bureau. On August 5th, a notice of rectification and rectification confirmed that Meinan Health Guangzhou Fuhai There are three major violations in the outpatient department, such as the inspection report issued by the imposter doctor, the handwritten signature of the inspection report, and the CT radiology diagnosis and treatment activities.

Affected, the US stock price fell by 24.88% in five days of health, and the market value evaporated by nearly 17 billion yuan. The pharmaceutical sector was also collectively “linked”, and the sector index fell by nearly 10%.

On August 31, “Black Swan” also slammed Fosun Pharma, and internal employees reported that the pharmaceutical company of Chongqing Pharmaceutical Industry Research Institute under Fosun Pharma “almost all production processes are not produced according to approved processes”. A large number of production records, inspection records "" fraudulent drug GMP certificate." On the opening day, the share price of Fosun Pharma fell sharply, once hitting the limit, and the market value evaporated more than 5 billion yuan.

More than a month later, on October 12, Fosun Pharma announced that the Chongqing Food and Drug Administration had decided that the company’s subsidiary, Chongqing Medical Institute, had not produced aripiprazole bulk drug according to GMP, and violated relevant regulations. Take back the Pharmaceutical GMP Certificate.

In just two months, the “vaccine door”, “fake medical door” and “reporting door” were all overwhelmed by the medical sector. Just wanted to take a breath and the “Honey Gate” came one after another.

On December 15, Jiangsu TV station exposed Yantong Golden Bee Food Technology Co., Ltd., a producer of Beijing Tongrentang Honey, suspected of illegal production of food honey. It recycles a large number of expired and expired honey, and the surface promotion is “returning to beekeepers to raise bees”, but in fact it is sent to the raw material warehouse. As of December 28, Tong Ren Tang closed at 27.5 yuan / share, the company's share price has dropped nearly 10% since the "Honey Gate" incident.

The frequent explosions of medical stocks have shaken the public's confidence in the safety of the entire industry, and the changes in policies have more to dampen the enthusiasm of capital for medical concept stocks.

Policy cloud overshadowed purchases exceeded expectations

The Lianxun Securities Research Report believes that China's pharmaceutical industry has shown high policy sensitivity because of its dependence on domestic demand. In the long history, the policy hand has continuously adjusted the development direction and speed of the pharmaceutical industry. Since the beginning of this year, various policies in the pharmaceutical industry have been introduced intensively. The most influential one is the “4+7” procurement policy.

“4+7” quantity procurement can be understood as the centralized procurement of medicines in “country” units, first piloted in 11 cities, with the purpose of “price-changing”. On September 11, the National Pilot Joint Procurement Office held a symposium in Shanghai. The meeting confirmed the joint procurement requirements and operation methods, and announced the first batch of procurement lists. Affected, the A-share medical sector continued to lead the decline in the following two days, and many stocks fluctuated greatly, and even the Hong Kong stock market could not be spared. At that time, the industry generally did not expect the policy to come so fast, so determined.

On December 6th, “4+7” took the procurement bidding day, and the collective stock collapse occurred just after the opening of the pharmaceutical stocks in the afternoon. Previously, the market expects the price cut to be 30%-40%, but from the proposed price, only 7 varieties with a price reduction of less than 40% have an average reduction of 52%, and some varieties have even dropped more than 90%. In addition, the purchase volume has also decreased compared with expectations. This collection accounted for 30%-50% of the total demand for drugs in 11 pilot cities, not 60%-70% previously reported by the market.

As the results of drug bidding were far below market expectations, pharmaceutical stocks collectively fell. Among them, Lepu Medical , which has not been selected for the “Bulk Purchasing” list, has fallen for three consecutive days, and its market value has evaporated by more than 16 billion yuan; Huadong Pharmaceutical, a leading generic drug company, has also accelerated its decline in the short term, and has fallen since December 6 %. The entire pharmaceutical sector fell 14.53% in 17 trading days, and the market value of about 400 billion yuan evaporated.

The bearers believe that in the next three to five years, pharmaceutical companies are unlikely to have substantial buying points, because “purchasing” will continue to be promoted in different regions of different drugs, and the scope of influence will only be greater, and the development of innovative drugs. It’s not overnight.

The seller's researchers screamed intensively, emphasizing the switch to valuation of innovative drugs, and the market was overly pessimistic. Ironically, Lepu Medical, Huadong Medicine and other leading pharmaceutical stocks after the market show that almost the vast majority of net sales ranked top for institutional seats, "takeover" is ordinary investors.

“Capacity Purchasing” continued to fertilize. On December 15, the National Medical Insurance Bureau and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the “Interim Measures for the Fraudulent Defrauding of Medical Insurance Funds” to encourage fraudulent defrauding of medical insurance. Or purchase non-medical items such as nutraceuticals and daily necessities are within the scope of reporting. The policy quickly triggered market concerns about pharmacy stocks. On December 17, pharmacy stocks fell across the board, and Yixintang fell to a limit. Yifeng pharmacies, ordinary people, and Dashenlin all fell more than 5%.

2018 is a year of sadness for pharmaceutical stocks. How sweet is the sugar that investors eat in the first half of the year, and the tears in the second half of the year will be bitter. This year is coming to an end. In 2019, the pharmaceutical stocks will continue to accept the challenge. Whether it will usher in the spring after the winter, we can only wait for the answer to the capital market.

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