Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery: Impact of the Epidemic Up to the Swine Price or Will Revert

The overall price continued to fall, and the price of piglets rebounded. In the 14th week of 2012, the average price of slaughter pigs in the country continued to fall, falling below 14 yuan/kg from last week's 14.19 yuan/kg to 13.76 yuan/kg, and fell for 11 consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival. The average price of piglets in the country fell from 32.43 yuan/kg last week to 32.28 yuan/kg, with a fall of 0.46% in the week and a year-on-year increase of 14.83%. The price of piglets fell for six consecutive weeks. This week, the price of 60 kg of sows around the country fell slightly and fell slightly to 1,711 yuan per head from 1,721 yuan per head last week. Zhou Wei fell 0.58 percent, up 7.61% year-on-year.

The national pig-to-food ratio fell below the equilibrium level, and pig-finishing pig breeding lost money. In the 14th week of 2012, the national pig price continued to fall and fell directly from last week's 4.79:1 to 4.65:1, almost equal to the equilibrium level. The weekly decline rate was 2.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.36%. This week, the national pig food price dropped for 12 consecutive weeks and returned to the level of July 15, 2010, from last week's 6. . 28:1 fell below 6 to 5.98:1, a year-on-year decrease of 15.54%. The nation’s total self-support slaughterhouse average profit for the 11th consecutive week decreased from 178 yuan per head last week to 135 yuan per head, a significant drop of 24.16% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 63.51% year-on-year.

Compared with the second week of this year, the self-reliant slaughterhouse profit has dropped by about 80%, and it has shrunk by 63.58% year-on-year. Fattening pig farmers have already suffered losses.

Feed prices rose overall. In the 14th week of 2012, the average price of corn in the country rose by RMB2.3/kg from RMB2.26/kg last week, up 10.58% year-on-year, and up 1.77% on a week-on-week basis. The average retail price of soybean meal obtained by farmers across the country rose to 348 yuan/kg, an increase of 2,96% year-on-year, and rose by 2.05% on a week-to-week basis. This week, the average price of wheat bran in the country remained stable with the previous period, dropping from 1.76 yuan/kg last week to 1.75 yuan/kg. 24 consecutive weeks at 1.7 yuan / kg or more. This week, the average price of domestic compound ingredients and self-made ingredients remained unchanged at 2.96 yuan/kg compared with last week. For 46 consecutive weeks, it was higher than the record high of 2.77 yuan/kg in 2008, which was a year-on-year increase of 923%.

When the impact of the epidemic is up, the pork price will be stronger. Although the current hog inventory has fallen by 4% since last November, the country’s hog production and slaughter respectively increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. g% and 3.6%. The recent decline in the price of pigs was mainly due to the relatively large amount of slaughter pigs. Most of the slaughter pigs currently slaughtered were born in October and November of last year, when epidemic diarrhoea did not start, the situation of pig disease was relatively stable, and the survival rate was relatively high. Therefore, the high mortality caused by diarrhea has not yet affected the current slaughter volume. However, based on the time of onset and the growth cycle, the impact of the decline in supply caused by diarrhoea is expected to be prominent at the earliest in the second half of April, and then the live pig market will continue to fall for three months and then enter the recovery rising channel. Therefore, we judge the price of pigs is not far behind.

Have a good look at pig breeding and feed industry. We predict that the pig price may begin to strengthen soon. Therefore, investors are advised to lay out the hog farming companies here, and then look at the inventory recovery and breeding scale for the feed company. Maintaining a "look for a rating" for the hog plate. However, we must pay attention to the risks brought about by the changes in the epidemic.